Class is one of the key factors in horse racing and if you want to collect big tickets for the winners, sometimes even long shots, you need to learn to spot a big drop in class. It is true that a big class drop will often result in a lot of action in mutuals and the horse will walk away cheaply, but not always. Even those horses that are bet on favoritism are worth a look because no other movement in horse racing produces more winners.
The problem, of course, is what really constitutes a good class exit? There are several situations that generally involve younger horses that, in my opinion, really mean a big drop in class and therefore deserve the respect of serious handicappers. The first such situation is when a horse falls into the claim ranks for the first time.
These horses are usually well bred and were quite expensive yearlings. Owners and trainers expected a lot from them and so, after breaking their damsels, they placed them in stakes and bonus races. So why are they now entered into a claims race where the owner can lose the horse in the claims box? There may be several reasons for this.
First of all, there are some horses that mature slowly and connections don’t know how good the horse will be for years to come. They have invested so much in the horse that they race it in prize races in the hope that the horse will eventually become a high performance horse. If the horse never meets their expectations, they may decide to cash in the horse, let someone else claim it, and move on. It may also be that the horse has suffered an injury that now makes it less desirable and less likely to reach a higher level. Whatever the case may be, a horse entering the claim ranks for the first time is a horse you should consider as a contender.
The second big class drop is a similar situation. When a horse has been running in the maiden special weight races and then falls in a maiden claim race, that is a big drop in class. It means that the owner is no longer protective of the horse and expectations have been lowered. It also means that he was facing much tougher competition. A horse that demonstrated little skill or interest in racing will often show markedly improved performance against claimants.
These two class drops are the biggest in my opinion and should be kept in mind by anyone who is competing in horse racing for money when committing a race.